We already know that ECB is prepared to use so called OMT mechanism to buy on secondary markets government bonds in trouble. The only thing we know is that ECB is prepared but close details were never revealed to public. But the rhetoric was so strong that markets calmed down for now. Lower interests’ rates have been introduced two weeks ago. This week some hidden sources from ECB have revealed that ECB is considering introducing negative rates for commercial lenders who park excess cash at the ECB to minus 0.1 percent from zero. It would be the first time the central bank has adjusted interest rates by less than a quarter of a percentage point. The true is that policy doesn’t yet have a consensus, the sources said. But I still think that it is more rhetoric than real policy decision. ECB has still some other option to intervene on markets as another round of LTRO, similar QE policy as we are witnessing in the US or direct forex interventions to which Czech central bank have decided two weeks ago. So we will see. But European leaders must be a little bit desperate because this news are coming with another measure which simply put should decrease extensive public debts by new debts. Yes you are reading correctly. The European Union is allegedly considering whether it could encourage countries to make long-term economic changes by offering them loans at below-market rates. Loans would be more suitable for smaller countries which have more difficult access to market sources. The only positive news is that loans for reforms would not be available to countries running excessive macroeconomic imbalances or under bailout.
Bundesbank gave noticed in the report from last week that southern European countries and their banking sector are still within the same vicious circle. According to Bundesbank Italian banks have increased their holdings of Italian public debt from €240bn to €415bn since November 2011 (+ 73pc). Spanish banks have raised their holdings of Spanish debt €166bn to €299. (+81pc) and Irish banks are up 60pc with Portuguese banks up 51pc. And we can only consider as one of the consequence apart of OMT mechanism why yields on sovereign debts still on sustainable levels are. But this state is not definitely sing of health banking system. Still works but not too long.
The best example of “effectiveness of the EU” is definitely moving parliamentary sessions from Brussels to Strasbourg. It is such a good idea that also Members of the European Parliament are tired of the monthly move from Brussels to Strasbourg for a week of plenary sessions. France on the other hand vetoes any change. After MEPs tried to merge two plenary sessions into one week last year to cut down on traveling time, France took the case to the Court of Justice of the European Union. What do you think happened? They won. So now MP´s are trying to change their strategy. They proposed that MP´s should in future be allowed to choose the seat of their institution themselves – with no mention of Strasbourg or Brussels. We will see if they succeed.
As we are always emphasizing it is not only about public debt. The extension of the debt of the whole western society is enormous. And public debt is only one part of it. It is very likely that much of private debt is not effective as well as public one. The situation is very considerable in the UK. Total personal debt in the UK has reached record highs – 1.4 trillion pounds. It means that households owe 94 percent of the UK’s economic output last year and an average household debt is about 54,000 pounds. It is almost twice the level of a decade ago. What is also more dangerous indebted households in the poorest 10 percent of population have average debts more than four times their annual income. So it is not very surprising that more than 130K people declare personal bankruptcy each year.
Globally, 86% of companies do not plan to hire in 2014. It is the output from the global survey within 11,000 companies around the world. Only 33 % of them are optimistic about the economic future for next year. Among most optimistic are US companies because 41 % of them presuppose better economic conditions in 2014 and only 19 % of them stated that they are not plan to hire anybody in 2014.
As we mention many times in the past China is preparing to enter world currencies world. One of the evidence is its vast activities in currency swaps with many countries or alleged increasing of their official gold holdings. The another step within this policy was last week clarification what the People’s Bank of China is going to do. There are two interesting points. First PBOC said the country does not benefit any more from increases in its foreign-currency holdings. It means that bank will very probably rein in dollar purchases as well. The second is that China’s central bank will “basically” end normal intervention in the currency market and will increase the role of market exchange rates and broaden the yuan’s daily trading limit. So do we see the step by step rise of new reserve currency? From my point of view, yes.
FED´s minutes revealed the dispute among members of monetary committee that they are prepared to tapper their easy-money policy within a few coming months. I still do not believe to that because it is not only about the unemployment rate which is if not manipulated at least managed according to some allegations that the last unemployment report before election in 2012 was manipulated. It is also about the structure of unemployment which is very bad. But who knows. On the other hand Bernanke has said last week that if FED tappers the policy of low interest rates remains for a longer period of time. It is clear evidence that nothing has been changed and trillion of US dollars from FED does not really help to economy. Otherwise we will see at least speculation about higher interest rates which also Keynesians consider as a healthy state of economy.
Matúš Pošvanc