The British PM has announced his plans of letting the Brits decide on “Britain in the EU” on referendum. David Cameron promises to do so in case Conservative party forms winning coalition in 2015 national elections. Therefore, it has been highly debated whether PM believes that Britain out of the EU is the way to the country’s bright future or simply he wants to be reelected. The later would make more sense considering snowballing Euroscepticism among Brits, especially after financial crisis.
According to his arrangements the referendum will be held in 2017. However the government will face another important referendum before that time. In 2014 the Scots will decide whether Scotland should be part of the UK or pursue its independence. The EU membership of the UK is the biggest asset of “pro-UK Better Together campaign”. By separating from Britain, the country automatically would lose membership of the EU and with it all the regulations which now exist with UK and the rest EU members would be deactivated. The claim by SNP (Scottish National Party) that independent Scotland would be able to renegotiate with the EU membership during the divorce period (2014-2016), has been refuted by Conservative MEP saying that Brussels is not allowed to start talks until Scotland becomes fully independent. Therefore, announcing referendum on Britain in the EU makes this asset of Brits disappear. It encourages Scots vote in favor of long-desired, yet uncomfortable independence.
Another thing to be taken into account is the complex interdependence which has been created throughout of 40 years of common market. The British will not simply avoid the fact that its economy is greatly dependent on the EU markets. As of 2008 57 % of British export was in the EU countries, while 15% in the US and 2% in China, Japan and Switzerland each. British business will have to adjust their trade to the hardened relations with the EU partners. The City of London will have hard times to avoid the protective pattern of the EU market. Even if the businesses manage to survive, the UK will lose the power as a strong stakeholder in Brussels decision-making process. The Brit officials in Brussels will befriend with Norwegian counterparts hanging around the negotiation room, expecting the results, in as much as Norwegian economy is directly affected by those decisions, even though they continuously refrain from becoming members of the EU.
Lastly, as Britain has always been considered a sort of Trojan horse of the US in the Europe, by parting the union the big brother’s European policy tool will be weakened in some way. The US officials did not seem happy by the PM’s announcement. Philip Gordon, the assistant secretary of State for Europe, has in many ways criticized the government for this consideration. “We have a growing relationship with the EU, which has an increasing voice in the world, and we want to see a strong British voice in it. That is in America’s interests. We welcome an outward-looking EU with Britain in it.” – explained Gordon during his official visit in the UK. He expressed worries that the votes like these often turned countries inward and the more the EU reflects on its internal debate, the less it is able to be unified. Irritated by the speech a British MP said: “Gordon should “butt out” since the issue of Britain’s EU membership had nothing to do with the Americans.” Although British traditional pride has been offended, in real politics it is still important to keep in mind the big brother’s position, especially when we think of the course of development of the two’s relations.
The sources:
http://www.mises.org/daily/6359/Peaceful-Disunion-in-Europe
http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/butt-out-britain
http://www.bubblews.com/news/164110-cameron-announces-referendum-about-the-presence-of-the-uk-on-the-eu
http://www.thesaint-online.com/2013/01/cameron-announces-referendum-on-britain-in-the-eu/
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/uncertainty-claims-over-eu-situation.20165790
Giorgi Bobghiashvili